DOES THE BETTER-THAN-AVERAGE EFFECT SHOW THAT PEOPLE ARE OVERCONFIDENT?: TWO EXPERIMENTS
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: Two Experiments.∗
We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizze...
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* This paper was previously circulated as “A Proper Test of Overconfidence”. We thank Uriel Haran for help with data collection as well as the staff and facilities of the Center for Behavioral Decision Research at Carnegie Mellon University. # email: [email protected] Abstract We conduct a proper test of the claim that people are overconfident, in the sense that they believe that they are better...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the European Economic Association
سال: 2014
ISSN: 1542-4766
DOI: 10.1111/jeea.12116